Hi there again. This is my first post in a while. I got a bit to feeling like I was a broken record talking about the same things over and over again, but with a little encouragement from my brother and some new inspiration, I’m ready to get back into things, maybe not 3 entries a week, but enough to keep some consistent new material on here.
One of the subjects that has been on my mind recently is that of interest and its effects on an economy.
I’ve really been thinking about it and have several different areas of the matter that I’d like to elaborate on, but for now I’d like to propose a thought experiment.
Thought experiment? Yes, thought experiment. I love thought experiments! We all do them, probably unconsciously. What I love to do with thought experiments is to take big and seemingly complex problems and break them down into smaller pieces so that I can more easily examine them and get my head fully around the subject, whatever that may be. Then I test it, poke it, prod it from all different angles, asking whatever questions I can think of to help me better understand.
Based on my thought experiments I can usually draw insights and valuable models that can be applied to real life and actually help predict the future by finding that model which best describes reality. That is fun! At least fun for me.
The issue I’ve been trying to get to the bottom of lately is whether or not interest is inherently bad for an economy. If so, why? I can’t get into all the details right now of how I’ve arrived at my conclusions today, but suffice it to say, I believe that the facts point, at the very least, to interest being quite susceptible to abuse. However, being susceptible to abuse is not the same as entirely wrong. Alcohol is susceptible to abuse, but can conceivably be consumed responsibly. Can the same be said for interest?
I’m still looking for a definitive answer to that and may never find one, however this brings me to today’s thought experiment. Let us look deeper into this concept of lending upon increase, upon interest, upon usury or riba.
The thought experiment will deal specifically with the way interest charging has been implemented in today’s society through fractional reserve banking. Let me say, this is potentially quite different from an economy that simply permits the charging of interest. In our system today, whatever evils may be inherent in an interest/credit based economy, they are compounded many times over in our Federal reserve system.
Let us begin our thought experiment now. One of the arguments against banking/lending at interest, is that the banker/lender is not risking anything. They have no skin in the game so to speak, yet they are profiting from the transaction. This point argues that the banker then acts as a leach/parasite to society, sucking resources from the economy without providing an equally valuable service to it. For there is no free lunch. Profits given to those unearned, are profits not given to those who earned them.
So to look deeper into this concept and hopefully find insight, let us consider a standard mortgage issued through a US bank. If anyone is not familiar with fractional reserve banking, let me give a quick refresher. A bank gets a charter from either the state or the federal government. This allows them to take deposits. Whatever deposits they receive, they are allowed to lend up to 90% of the deposits, keeping 10% in reserve to meet any day to day cash obligations of the depositors. Make sense? Hence the 10% reserve banking system.
You and I as regular Joes cannot do this. We cannot take our friends money, tell him he has full access to all of it, and then lend out 90% of it. We as individuals cannot do this, only banks with a state issued license/charter may.
So if I put $1,000,000 into a bank account, that bank can lend out 900,000 of it, keeping 100,000 in its reserves if I were to demand a portion or all of it back. While 900k may be lent out, I still have access to the $1MM. Mutually exclusive you may say. Well that topic/issue is for another day, for now we’re just concerned with how the system currently works. If you’re wondering if this is true, look it up if you like to verify, but that is the nuts and bolts of it.
For our experiment instead of a million dollars, lets say we have a bank with just 200,000 in deposits. This means they can lend up to 180,000, keeping 20,000 in reserves. So the bank opens its doors and accepts 200k in deposits. So far, what has happened? A banker got a charter from the state, found a building and is now accepting deposits. Work done? Removing the one time expenses that approach zero when distributed over time, the banker could have done all this work in a week or so’s time. So the banker has invested a week of his time. The depositor has deposited 200,000, which is worth 4 years wages for someone working at 50k a year, not accounting for taxes. So the depositor has brought 4 years wages to the table.
Now the banker, being a “good” banker knows he needs to put this money to work within the law so that he can make his way. He finds someone qualified to take out a mortgage. The proposed mortgage is for a 200k dollar house. The buyer has 40,000 to put down, so he’ll need a 160k loan. That’s no problem says the banker, I can legally loan out 180,000 of my 200k in deposits.
So the loan is done and the house is purchased at 200k, 40k down and a 160k loan.
Before we go further lets take a look at a few things. Of the total 200k used to buy the loan, where did it come from, or in other words, whose money is it being used or more importantly “risked”? Whose money is being risked in the case that the house falls in value? Who would lose out?
We know that the homeowner put down 40k, so that 40k is his risk exposure so to speak. What about the 160k? Whose risk exposure is that? The bank right? Well, let’s think about that. Is it really the bank? It is, in that the bank has borrowed, in a way, the money from the depositor, paying him sometimes a tiny amount in interest, but whose money is it really? Not the banks money, its the depositors money. If the house’s value fell in half, and the property were foreclosed on and sold, the banker won’t have the cash to pay back the depositor, the bank would go bust and the depositor would be the one taking the loss. It is important to establish up front that it is the depositors money at risk, not the bankers, because the banker has none of his personal capital involved in the deal.
In reality, the bank is acting as a middleman, simply matching up someone’s savings to an investment. So in this transaction, who is at risk? It is the homeowner, who has 40k at risk, and the depositor who has 160k at risk. The banker has nothing at risk. He matches those who want to save, with those who wants to borrow. He is a broker of sorts, making his money by matching investors and borrowers. He makes money on the deal on an upfront fee regardless of what happens to the house in the long run. The banker took the risk to start his banking/broker business, but in regards to this specific transaction he has no personal capital that he worked for at risk.
Ok, so far there is no judgment we are merely looking at whose money is at risk in the transaction.
In a just society, those who venture should share equally in the benefit based on their risk exposure. We intuitively know that if we’re taking a risk, we deserve to be compensated right? If someone asked to borrow our car and crashed it, at least we knew and gave permission to use it. But if someone borrows our car and crashes it without us knowing, that is stealing.
The depositor worked 4 years to save his 200k, and the borrower worked almost a year to save his down-payment. They have worked and earned their capital. In this particular transaction, the borrower shares 20% of the monetary risk, and the depositor shares 80% of the monetary risk.
Now that we know the risk, it should follow that whatever reward there is, should be split 80/20 between the depositor and the borrower respectively.
In a normal mortgage transaction, the depositor is not the one considered to have lent the money. The bank has lent the money for the depositor in exchange for paying him a small percentage on his account balance and the guarantee that he can get his full deposits back on demand.
For simplicity’s sake, lets assume the house has a 30 year mortgage at 6.5% and is kept to its full term and then the house is sold for 300k (low inflation).
Rewards/benefits:
Depositor: Lets assume he had a no interest checking account and kept the same balance in it for the full 30 years. He receives nothing for his deposits, other then access to them. No monetary gain though is given. Overall, he loses nothing (if the house doesn’t fall in value and then into foreclosure), but gains nothing as well.
Borrower: After 30 years of payments, he owns the house outright and receives 300k cash for the house, 40k of which was his down payment, he nets 260k. If the value of his house had gone up more he would receive that much more of a benefit.
Banker: For his efforts, after the loan is paid off, he puts the depositors money back into the account, and after all this time he has received on the 6.5% interest charge a total of $204,071.18 in interest payments over the 30 years. If those had been reinvested, the total benefit would be even higher.
Let us recap what has happened. The depositor, who fronted the 160k for the borrower to buy the house, and shares 80% of the monetary risk, receives nada/zilch for his risk. The borrower who put up 40k and took on 20% of the monetary risk, nets 260k after 30 years. All things considered, not bad for him, not amazing if you annualize that return, but he has gained, not lost. Now let us look at the banker, he receives over 200k in interest payments over the 30 years. You may say, well that is not as much as the borrower received, but remember what did the banker risk? How much of his own money? None! Nada. If the house payments stop at any point, he simply forecloses, sells the house, takes the proceeds and finds someone else to lend it to. The banker risks none of his own capital. Not only does he receive all that interest he also receives fees on the front end to create the mortgage in the first place.
Let me ask you. Which person would you like to be in this scenario?
The banker of course, because, adjusting for risk, he receives by far the greatest reward of the three parties. BY FAR. He riskes nothing, and gains much. The depositor worked hard for his 200k in deposits, the borrower worked hard for his 40k down payment. The banker did a couple days worth of paperwork and credit worthy checking and received a steady monthly income stream for 30 years. What benefit does that have to society? What value did the banker provide? He matched a borrower and a lender, and that has value, but not as much as the 200k the depositor worked and saved for, not and as much as the 40k that the borrower worked and saved for. The banker is paid in full for his brokering services from the loan origination fees, the rest of the risk/reward of the transaction should be shared between the depositor and the borrower, based on their contributions.
Now let me ask you. Does that seem right? Does that seem equitable?
It sure doesn’t to me. If my funds are at risk as a depositor, I sure would like to know that, and be compensated for it. But somehow when the bank says to us as depositors that we have full access to our checking funds, when a full 90% of them are lent out, we somehow settle for a small interest rate if any, and rest in the fact that we’re FDIC insured. Ever wonder why we need FDIC insurance in the first place? If the money is in the bank that we deposited, why do we need insurance on it? Its there in a safe protected, right? Insurance must be only in case it gets robbed right? The amount of money actually robbed is quite small, and that is paid for under a separate insurance policy. That is not what FDIC insurance is for.
The reason we need FDIC insurance, is because 90% of the money isn’t there, its loaned out. The only money the banks have to pay back depositors, should they all demand their money at once, is from the mortgage payments coming in, or they can call their loans due to be paid in full. This is what happened in the Great Depression but is not allowed today. FDIC insurance is there to help provide security for those that would rather keep their money at home then have a bank lend it out for them without compensation.
If my bank lends my money out and that loan goes bad, then my money is at risk. I’d rather keep it at home, or lend it directly then to have a banker risk my capital for me, paying me a tiny amount and pocketing the rest of the profit. Keeping ones money at home is one of a bankers greatest fears. They want your money so they can loan it out. It wouldn’t be so bad if they acted as a broker, took their fee for matching up lenders and borrowers and let the participants split the risk/reward, but they’re not satisfied with just a broker fee. They want all the interest payments over time too, which rightfully should go to the person who actually has capital at risk, in the case of this thought experiment is the depositor.
The depositor is paid some minimal interest payment, or nothing at all, when in actuality they have their money being lent out to other.
In conclusion, in a just society its members do not reap where they do not sow. To do so is, at its core stealing from someone who rightfully earned the gain. Can interest be a part of a healthy and equitable economy? Possibly.
Is the fractional reserve system we have today that rewards those who do not risk, equitable? I would argue, most definitely not. So, I can say with a high degree of confidence that interest, as used in the US banking system and other countries worldwide, is unjust.
Outlawing interest would fix the problem fairly quickly. However, this thought experiment can only go so far. I believe it fairly clearly illustrates the iniquity of this system as its built, but it can’t prove that interest itself has no place in a healthy economy. All we can conclude from this thought experiment, is that interest as implemented in today’s system most definitely creates economic injustice, redirecting financial reward from those who risk, to those who do not risk.
Finding out if interest itself is inherently negative for a society will require additional thought experiments for another day. Stay tuned!
For now, I challenge anyone to find a flaw in my facts or logic. I challenge you! I am open and gracious, willing to entertain any new information that invalidates my conclusions. I do not care where truth leads me, I simply pursue it at all costs. Show me truth!
ADDENDUM: In the analysis of the benefits, I forgot to include all the payments that the borrower made to offset his gain. If you include the interest as well as the payments he made, in all he paid over $361k for the house, which after adding the 40k down payment, means he spent over $401k on an asset he sold for $300k. In actuality he lost $101k on the deal. You may say, well he got 30 years of rent in the deal, isn’t that worht something? Sure it is, and that could actually be quantified, but for time’s sake, I wish to point out how much further this proves that the banker is by far the greatest benefactor in this scenario. If it was equitably earned I would have no issue, but since the risk and rewards are not equitably shared, the whole transaction is unequitable and thus economically unjust.